Characterizing abrupt transitions in stochastic dynamics

Abstract

Data sampled at discrete times appears as a succession of discontinuous jumps, even if the underlying trajectory is continuous. We analytically derive a criterion that allows one to check whether for a given, even noisy time series the underlying process has a continuous (diffusion) trajectory or has jump discontinuities. This enables one to detect and characterize abrupt changes (jump events) in given time series. The proposed criterion is validated numerically using synthetic continuous and discontinuous time series. We demonstrate applicability of our criterion to distinguish diffusive and jumpy behavior by a data-driven inference of higher-order conditional moments from empirical observations.

Keywords

• Kramers–Moyal coefficients
• jump-diffusion processes
• temporal resolution
• Pawula theorem
• time series analysis