Improved earthquake aftershocks forecasting model based on long-term memory

Abstract

A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws, including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on these empirical laws. Yet, a recent study [ 1 ] showed that the ETAS model fails to reproduce the significant long-term memory characteristics found in real earthquake catalogs. Here we modify and generalize the ETAS model to include short- and long-term triggering mechanisms, to account for the short- and long-time memory (exponents) discovered in the data. Our generalized ETAS model accurately reproduces the short- and long-term/distance memory observed in the Italian and Southern Californian earthquake catalogs. The revised ETAS model is also found to improve earthquake forecasting after large shocks.

Keywords

• earthquake memory
• ETAS model
• forecasting