Spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions and influencing factors in county-level based on nighttime lighting data: a case study in Huaihai economic zone core city

Abstract

Driven by China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, this study constructs a carbon emission inversion model for 57 county-level in the core city cluster of the Huaihai Economic Zone. It analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics of carbon emissions in these counties between 2001 and 2021. It also explores the impacts of different socio-economic factors on carbon emissions by adopting geographically and temporally weighted regression methods. The results showed that: (1) From 2001 to 2021, the total carbon emissions of counties increased from 63.42 Mt to 279.89 Mt, and the distribution pattern of the region is “high in the middle and low in the east and west.” (2) Carbon emissions have significant positive spatial correlations, with the global Moran’s I index showing a wave-like downward trend from 0.233 to 0.0954, indicating that the spatial concentration of carbon emissions in different counties is gradually decreasing, and the differences show a trend of narrowing. (3) Significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity is among the influencing factors. It is mainly manifested in population size and industrial structure, while economic scale and technological progress are the dominant factors in carbon emissions. The research results will inform county-level low-carbon development.

Keywords

• nighttime lighting data
• carbon emission
• county-level
• spatio-temporal evolution
• influencing factors