How streamflow has changed across Australia since the 1950s: evidence from the network of hydrologic reference stations

Abstract

Streamflow variability and trends in Australia were investigated for 222 high-quality stream gauging stations having 30 years or more continuous unregulated streamflow records. Trend analysis identified seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability, long-term monotonic trends and step changes in streamflow. Trends were determined for annual total flow, baseflow, seasonal flows, daily maximum flow and three quantiles of daily flow. A distinct pattern of spatial and temporal variation in streamflow was evident across different hydroclimatic regions in Australia. Most of the stations in southeastern Australia spread across New South Wales and Victoria showed a significant decreasing trend in annual streamflow, while increasing trends were retained within the northern part of the continent. No strong evidence of significant trend was observed for stations in the central region of Australia and northern Queensland. The findings from step change analysis demonstrated evidence of changes in hydrologic responses consistent with observed changes in climate over the past decades. For example, in the Murray–Darling Basin, 51 out of 75 stations were identified with step changes of significant reduction in annual streamflow during the middle to late 1990s, when relatively dry years were recorded across the area. Overall, the hydrologic reference stations (HRSs) serve as critically important gauges for streamflow monitoring and changes in long-term water availability inferred from observed datasets. A wealth of freely downloadable hydrologic data is provided at the HRS web portal including annual, seasonal, monthly and daily streamflow data, as well as trend analysis products and relevant site information.