Power transmission risk assessment considering component condition

Abstract

This paper proposes a new method for power transmission risk assessment considering historical failure statistics of transmission systems and operation failure risks of system components. Component failure risks are integrated into the new method based on operational condition assessment of components using the support vector data description (SVDD) approach. The traditional outage probability model of transmission lines has been modified to build a new framework for power transmission system risk assessment. The proposed SVDD approach can provide a suitable mechanism to map component assessment grades to failure risks based on probabilistic behaviors of power system failures. Under the new method, both up-to-date component failure risks and traditional system risk indices can be processed with the proposed outage model. As a result, component failure probabilities are not only related to historical statistic data but also operational data of components, and derived risk indices can reflect current operational conditions of components. In simulation studies, the SVDD approach is employed to evaluate component conditions and link such conditions to failure rates using up-to-date component operational data, including both on-line and off-line data of components. The IEEE 24-bus RTS-1979 system is used to demonstrate that component operational conditions can greatly affect the overall transmission system failure risks.

Keywords

• Risk assessment
• Component failure risk
• Outage probability
• Condition assessment
• Support vector data description