Making a case for power-sensitive water modelling: a literature review

Abstract

Models are widely used to research hydrological change and risk. However, the power embedded in the modelling process and outcomes is often concealed by claiming their neutrality. Our review shows that in the scientific literature relatively little attention is given to the influence of models on development processes and outcomes in water governance. At the same time, an emerging body of work offering critical insights into the political implications of hydrological models and a nuanced understanding of their application in context has begun to flourish. Drawing on this work, we call for power-sensitive modelling which includes the following considerations: take a holistic approach to modelling beyond programming and coding; foster accountability; work towards just and equitable water distributions; be transparent about the expectations and choices made; and democratise modelling by giving space to and being mindful of representations of multiple bodies of knowledge and multiple stakeholders and by incorporating marginalised people and nature into the modelling process. Our call should not be understood as a suggestion to do away with modelling altogether, but rather as an invitation to interrogate how quantitative models may help to foster transformative pathways towards more just and equitable water distributions.