The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism: A Causality Analysis

Abstract

Tourism industry is one of the primary sectors that contribute to economic growth of countries worldwide. Since it requires appropriate weather conditions and clean environment, climate changes can significantly affect the sector. Therefore, this study examines the causality and long-run relationship between the climate change and tourism sector in Turkey. To estimate the potential long-run relationship between variables, Granger-Causality test is applied to data from 1960 to 2016. The study uses World Development Indicator Data released by World Bank. For the analysis, carbon-dioxide emission, methane emission, energy use (oil equivalent), and forest land are standing for climate change indicators. International tourist arrivals and tourism revenues represent for tourism sector’s variables. The findings show that there is a negative and significant coefficient of climate change on tourism sector. Also, in average, climatic change indicators have unidirectional and negative impact on international tourism revenue. Another finding is that climate change deteriorates to environment by augmenting carbon dioxide emission and methane emission. As a result, climatic change can weaken the tourism industry which can decrease the speed of Turkey’s economic development. In the long run, this research can pioneer assessing the economic and environmental impacts of climate change in the tourism sector bases.

Keywords

• causality analysis
• climate change
• economic effect, environmental degradation
• tourism sector