Time lag analysis of real estate supply policies for housing construction projects

Abstract

Real estate is not only a vital component of the economy, but it also has a considerable influence on household finance and various social and cultural phenomena. South Korea is experiencing an accelerating trend of economic polarization, which is being driven by low interest rates and growth paradigm. It’s important to recognize that asset disparity, rather than income differences, is the primary cause of this polarization. Therefore, it is crucial for government entities to intervene through real estate policies to address this issue. However, government policies have at times failed to meet expectations, showing limitations in stability and reliability. They have failed to provide precise responses to demand and supply, ranging from implementing excessive regulation policies to considering occupancy rates as current supply rather than as results of previous policies. To address these issues, we applied cross-correlation analysis to derive time lags between procedures in housing construction projects at the national level in South Korea. This approach can provide essential insights to enhance the effectiveness of supply policies by identifying the temporal discrepancies that occur until actual supply is realized.

Keywords

• real estate supply policy
• housing construction business
• cross-correlation analysis