Towards automatic calibration of 2-D flood propagation models

Abstract

Hydraulic models for flood propagation description are an essential tool in many fields and are used, for example, for flood hazard and risk assessments, evaluation of flood control measures, etc. Nowadays there are many models of different complexity regarding the mathematical foundation and spatial dimensions available, and most of them are comparatively easy to operate due to sophisticated tools for model setup and control. However, the calibration of these models is still underdeveloped in contrast to other models like e.g. hydrological models or models used in ecosystem analysis. This has two primary reasons: first, lack of relevant data against which the models can be calibrated, because flood events are very rarely monitored due to the disturbances inflicted by them and the lack of appropriate measuring equipment in place. Second, 2-D models are computationally very demanding and therefore the use of available sophisticated automatic calibration procedures is restricted in many cases. This study takes a well documented flood event in August 2002 at the Mulde River in Germany as an example and investigates the most appropriate calibration strategy for a simplified 2-D hyperbolic finite element model. The model independent optimiser PEST, that enables automatic calibrations without changing model code, is used and the model is calibrated against over 380 surveyed maximum water levels. The application of the parallel version of the optimiser showed that (a) it is possible to use automatic calibration in combination of 2-D hydraulic model, and (b) equifinality of model parameterisation can also be caused by a too large number of degrees of freedom in the calibration data in contrast to a too simple model setup. In order to improve model calibration and reduce equifinality, a method was developed to identify calibration data, resp. model setup with likely errors that obstruct model calibration.