Contribution of low-frequency climatic–oceanic oscillations to streamflow variability in small, coastal rivers of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (Colombia)

Abstract

This study evaluated the influence of low-frequency oscillations, that are linked to large-scale oceanographic–atmospheric processes, on streamflow variability in small tropical coastal mountain rivers of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Colombia. We used data from six rivers that had > 32 years of complete, continuous monthly streamflow records. This investigation employed spectral analyses to (1) explore temporal characteristics of streamflow variability, (2) estimate the net contribution to the energy spectrum of low-frequency oscillations to streamflow anomalies, and (3) analyze the linkages between streamflow anomalies and large-scale, low-frequency oceanographic–atmospheric processes. Wavelet analyses indicate that the 8–12-year component exhibited a quasi-stationary state, with a peak of maximum power between 1985 and 2005. These oscillations were nearly in phase in all rivers. Maximum power peaks occurred for the Palomino and Rancheria rivers in 1985 and 1995, respectively. The wavelet spectrum highlights a change in river variability patterns between 1995 and 2015, characterized by a shift towards the low-frequency oscillations' domain (8–12 years). The net contribution of these oscillations to the energy spectrum was as high as 51 %, a value much larger than previously thought for rivers in northwestern South America. The simultaneous occurrence of hydrologic oscillations, as well as the increase in the amplitude of the 8–12-year band, defined periods of extremely anomalous wet seasons during 1989–1990, 1998–2002 and 2010–2011, reflecting the role of low-frequency oscillations in modulating streamflow variability in these rivers. Cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence revealed high common powers and significant coherences in low-frequency bands (>96 months) between streamflow anomalies and Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Tropical North Atlantic Index (TNA). These results show the role of large-scale, low-frequency oceanographic–climate processes in modulating the long-term hydrological variability of these rivers.